The Russian ban on gasoline exports will not cause a shock on the Polish market, says Jakub Bogucki, an analyst at E-petrol. In his opinion, the ban will not significantly affect the global fuel balance, because there are gaps in the restrictions that Moscow has chosen.
Reuters reported on Tuesday that The authorities in Russia announced a ban on the export of gasoline, which is to remain in force for six months starting from March 1 this year. The ban was approved by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.
Jakub Bogucki, fuel market analyst at E-petrol, assessed that this ban will not affect the Polish gasoline market and its prices. – I don’t expect it to cause a shock in Poland. Due to the EU embargo, Poland does not import fuels from Russiawe are not dependent on gasoline imports at all, Bogucki noted.
The Russian ban is not airtight
He pointed out that the ban on gasoline exports introduced by the Russians is not airtight because it does not apply to, among others, countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (except Russia also Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan), so from there, Russian gasoline can reach the global market – especially to countries that are forced to import fuel because they do not have their own refineries.
Bogucki added that he does not expect the escalating situation in the Middle East in connection with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and attacks Houthis on crude oil transports in the Red Sea, intensified the effect of the Russian embargo on gasoline exports.
– This does not complicate oil extraction in the Middle East, but there are problems with its transport. The route to destination countries is longer, which increases freight prices. However, this has already been discounted in fuel prices – Bogucki noticed.
Another Russian ban
Russia had previously introduced similar restrictions, which were in force from September to November last year. They also did not apply to the four former USSR countries – Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.
This time, the ban will also not cover those countries associated in the Moscow-controlled Eurasian Economic Union, but also Mongolia, Uzbekistan and two Russian-backed separatist regions Georgia – South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
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