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El Nino is coming to an end. La Nina is coming. What awaits us next? Forecasts

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The El Nino weather phenomenon is expected to end by the end of June, American meteorologists announced on Thursday. According to their predictions, the La Nina phenomenon may occur in the second half of 2024.

The US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast on Thursday that the chance of La Nina occurring in the period from June to August is 49 percent and increases to 69 percent in the period from July to September.

What is the significance of these phenomena?

The occurrence of weather changes that can cause long-term droughts, tropical cyclones and fires is of key importance for agriculture.

Last year's occurrence of El Nino resulted in a reduction in rice exports by India, which is the leading supplier. This was due to the very poor monsoon season. Wheat production in Australia, which is one of the ten largest exporters, as well as soybean and corn crops in Latin America also suffered.

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“La Nina will likely impact wheat and corn production in the U.S. and soybean, barley, wheat and corn production in Latin America, including Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay,” said Sabrin Chowdhury, a financial markets analyst, in an interview with Reuters.

El NiñoMaciej Zieliński/PAP/Reuters

El Nino and La Nina. What are they?

El Nino and La Nina are large-scale climatic phenomena that affect the ocean-atmosphere system in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Nino is characterized by above-average warm ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. In turn, during the opposite phase, called La Nina, the water temperature in the same region drops below average.

The full weather pattern, which includes El Nino, La Nina and a neutral phase, usually lasts two to seven years. Experts warn that Latin American countries must be on high alert because a rapid transition to La Nina this time could leave populations and crops little time to recover.

Last month, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) announced that the El Nino phenomenon had ended.

La Niña weather anomalyAdam Ziemienowicz/PAP/REUTERS

Main photo source: AdobeStock

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