Euro, dollar, pound, Swiss franc – latest quotations 4/10/2023. Economists’ comments

After an hour, 10 euros cost PLN 4.63, the Swiss franc PLN 4.80, the dollar PLN 4.42 and the British pound PLN 5.34.

Economists emphasize that on PLN quotations The decision of the Monetary Policy Council will have an impact.

“At least in the short term, the further behavior of the zloty will depend on the scale of the rate cut by the Monetary Policy Council. In our opinion, any reduction in the cost of money stronger than 25 basis points, especially in the unfavorable global environment for EM (emerging markets) currencies, would strengthen pressure on the continuation of PLN depreciation with the possibility of overcoming the nearest technical resistance on EUR/PLN located around 4.64,” PKO BP economists estimate.

“However, a rate cut consistent with the market consensus would be at least neutral for the zloty, which could then start to react more strongly to global sentiment,” they add.

“In our opinion, a stronger cut in the cost of money than the consensus 25 basis points is possible. At the same time, in our scenario we assume that during tomorrow’s conference the president of the National Bank of Poland may announce a break in the monetary easing cycle. As a result, the zloty may strengthen towards 4.60 for EUR. In our opinion, it is difficult to see a greater appreciation of the Polish currency this week. The external environment remains unfavorable for riskier assets,” Bank Millennium economists point out.

“The risk of a larger reduction and President Glapiński’s return to overly optimistic disinflation rhetoric is important. Therefore, with the strong dollar, the return of EUR/PLN to 4.67-68 at the end of the week is a serious risk. In the event of a larger scale of EUR/PLN reduction, it may reach the September peaks (around 4.70) within a few days, but probably not further before the elections,” ING economists estimate.