Economic growth in Poland in 2024 will amount to 2.8 percent, which is lower than previous forecasts, S&P Global reported. The reason for the forecast reduction is weak growth in Western Europe – it was explained.
“Weak growth in Western Europe has led us to slightly lower our 2024 GDP forecasts for Hungary (2.2% from 2.6% previously) and Poland (2.8% from 3.1% previously). Both economies recorded an increase in domestic demand in the second half of last year, after which demand slowed down at the beginning of this year,” said the latest report by the American company S&P Global on economic forecasts for emerging markets.
In 2025, S&P Global forecasts a growth of 3.1% for Poland. (0.1 percentage point higher than the previous forecast), in 2026 our country's GDP is expected to increase by 2.9%. and in 2027 – by 2.8 percent.
Interest rates and PLN quotations
S&P Global analysts expect that interest rates in Poland will remain unchanged throughout 2024 and that their reductions will begin only in 2025, as a result of which the main NBP reference rate will drop from 5.75%. currently up to 4.75 percent at the end of the year.
S&P Global expects even greater reductions in 2026 – by a total of 1.75 points. percent, up to 3 percent And interest rates are expected to remain at this level until the end of 2027, S&P Global forecasts.
The company's forecasts also show that the Polish zloty will strengthen this year – the average dollar exchange rate is expected to be PLN 4.01 compared to PLN 4.2 last year. At the same time, in 2025 the average dollar exchange rate is forecast at PLN 4.03, in 2026 – at PLN 4.13 and in 2027 – at PLN 4.17.
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