Weather for winter 2023/2024. IMWM long-term forecast for December, January, February, March

The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management published an experimental, long-term study weather forecast for winter 2023/2024 and the beginning of spring. Covers the months: December 2023 and January, February and March 2024.

In December, the average monthly air temperature throughout Poland is to be within the range of the long-term norm from 1991-2020 – he said. IMWM. The precipitation forecast looks different. Their monthly total in all regions is expected to be above average.

According to meteorologists from IMWM, January may also be wet, the monthly rainfall will probably be above normal throughout the country. As for the temperature, just like in December, it should not deviate from the norm throughout the month.

The forecasts for February 2024 look the same. The monthly air temperature should be normal, while the amount of precipitation will probably be above the norm from 1991-2020.

The first spring month promises to be warm. In March, monthly air temperatures above normal are expected throughout Poland. According to IMWM, it will be another wet month, the average rainfall everywhere is expected to be above average.

The average monthly air temperature and monthly rainfall for a given month are forecast in relation to the long-term standard adopted for the period 1991-2020. The values ​​of the average monthly temperature and monthly rainfall from this period are sorted from the lowest to the highest, the 10 lowest values ​​determine the average temperature or total rainfall in the “below normal” class, the middle 10 are “normal”, and the 10 highest are “above normal” – he explains. Institute of Meteorology and Water Management.

When the forecast assumes that the average temperature or rainfall is:

– above normal – it can be assumed that the month will be warmer or wetter than at least 20 months observed in the years 1991-2020;

– In norm – the month can be predicted to be similar to the typical 10 months observed in 1991-2020;

– below standard – it can be assumed that the month will be colder or drier than at least 20 observed, the same months in the years 1991-2020.

Please note that the forecast average temperature refers to the average temperature of the entire month, to the temperature recorded both during the day and at night. The forecast rainfall refers to the sum of rainfall from all days in the month. The type of precipitation (snow or rain) is not specified in the forecasts.

IMWM emphasizes that “despite the increasing computational power of supercomputers and extensive knowledge of weather processes, it is still impossible to avoid errors and differences in forecasts for such a long period.” What it comes from? As experts explain, it is about “the risk of sudden (often local) meteorological phenomena that may disturb forecasted weather processes and the very diversity of physical assumptions and mathematical and statistical equations used in forecasting models.” It is impossible to accurately describe the weather forecast so far in advance. This forecast is indicative, experimental in nature and concerns the average course for the entire forecast region and a given forecast period.