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Tuesday, May 21, 2024

What about El Nino? The situation in the Pacific is dynamic

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Japanese meteorologists decided to check what the new predictions about the appearance of El Nino look like. As they reported, there is an 80 percent risk that in the summer of 2023 the world will struggle with the consequences of the reversal of the La Nina phenomenon.

The Japan Meteorological Agency reported on Friday that El Niño conditions had appeared in the Pacific. According to local experts, the probability that the phenomenon will be felt in our hemisphere from the summer is 80 percent.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a phenomenon that occurs when the water surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific is above average. The trade winds – gusts of wind that bring out cool deep sea water – are starting to weaken. When the Pacific Ocean is warmer, North and South America are at greater risk of heavy rainfall and severe hurricanes, and parts of Southeast Asia and Northern Australia are at greater risk of severe drought.

The opposite of this trend is La Nina. We have been dealing with this phenomenon for the last three years. According to the latest research, the giant bushfires that occurred in Australia at the turn of 2019 and 2020 could be responsible for its prolongation.

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El Nino in a 2019 satellite imageNOAA

The El Nino phenomenon from 2015-2016

>>> More about research: La Nina reigned long. Perhaps because of the fires

WMO opinion

The first reports of the disappearance of the La Nina phenomenon appeared at the beginning of the year. Since then, meteorological agencies began to devote more attention to observing developments in the Pacific Ocean. According to the initial findings, after the La Nina phenomenon subsided, we were to wait for several months of the so-called neutral period, during which none of the phenomena was to be dominant. El Niño was supposed to occur only after the fall. The latest forecasts are proof of how dynamic conditions are in the Pacific right now.

>>> Read more: La Nina is over, El Nino is coming. Here are six risks it brings

In early May, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a communiqué stating that there is a 60% risk of El Niño between May and July. In June-August, the probability was 70 percent, and between July and September – 80 percent.

For now, WMO officials are having a hard time pinpointing how long-lasting and strong an El Niño might be, but they are pretty sure it will contribute to rising global temperatures.

– For the last three years we have had a cooling La Nina phenomenon, which has acted as a temporary brake on global temperature rise. The development of El Niño will most likely lead to a new spike in global warming and increase the risk of breaking temperature records, said WMO Secretary General Prof. Petteri Taalas. – The world should prepare for the development of El Niño, which is often associated with increased heat, drought or rainfall in various parts of the world. It can bring respite from the drought in the Horn of Africa, but it can also trigger more extreme weather and climate events, he added.

Reuters, WMO, tvnmeteo.pl

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