American analysts from the Institute for War Studies (ISW) noted in the latest update that in the area west of Avdiivka, which was taken over some time ago Russians probably they won't be able to lead to a significant breach in the front line.
As assessed by experts, Russia will not achieve in the field necessary for this purpose operational advantageeven though Ukrainian troops are partially withdrawing from nearby villages.
War in Ukraine. Analysts about the combat capabilities of the Russians
Syrski also reported that Ukraine would carry out operations in the area unit rotationto restore combat capabilities and get rid of the problem of military fatigue at the front.
Despite the clearly defensive attitude of the Ukrainians, ISW estimates that the Russians – without bringing in additional troops to fight the expected new defenders – will not be able to make quick progress on the front. Analysts assessed the ability to advance west of Avdiivka as “probably limited“.
Ukraine is fighting in the Avdiivka region. Russians without operational advantage
The import of additional reinforcements, ammunition and equipment as well as the rotation of Ukrainian units will force the Russian command to choosing one of two options. As we read, the generals will have to choose to join the fighting further branchesor they will accept that there will be no major breakthrough in the region in the near future.
The assessment of ISW resembles that of General Syrski. He also stated that “marginal progress has been made in forcing the Ukrainians to retreat did not give Russia an operational advantage“.
The Kyiv Independent reminded that the Russians are currently attacking Czasiv Yar, which is located approximately 50 km north of Avdiivka. Between 20,000 and 25,000 Russian soldiers are said to be attacking near the town. The Russians' goal is to break through to the city before they reach Ukraine ammunition and necessary equipment from the USA.
Sources: The Kyiv Independent, ISW
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