Disturbing reports from the Institute of War Studies. The think tank cites Politico's findings that the president Ukrainy in December 2023, he told the Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnsonthat without new aid from the US, Ukrainian troops are able to “hold out” on the front until March or April 2024.
Ukraine. Russia wants to use the time. “Significant Gains Expected”
“The arrival of aid from the United States in the coming weeks will allow Ukrainians to solve current material shortages and limit the progress of the aggressor's offensive actions, and Russiado not appear to be intensifying their efforts to destabilize Ukrainian defense and achieve territorial gains before American military aid arrives,” the ISW estimates in its latest report.
According to two Ukrainian intelligence sources cited by the Financial Times Russia plans to use current operations to prepare the ground for a major summer offensive (late May or June). According to a Western source, the Russians can make “tactical breakthroughs”, but they will not defeat the Ukrainian defense.
The Russians have a chance for tactical advantages in the Avdiivka area, including the capture of Chasiv Yar, which has recently been their goal. However, this will not enable an operationally significant entry into further areas, not to mention the collapse of the Ukrainian defense in the Donetsk Oblast.
Ukraine is waiting for US help. “Russians appear to be intensifying their efforts”
According to ISW experts, well-resourced Ukrainian forces will likely be able to prevent significant Russian advances during the expected summer offensive, although enemy forces will certainly take advantage of some advantages and adaptations to create a significant threat to Ukraine.
According to ISW experts The Russians take advantage of the advantage in troop numbers and equipmentto gradually increase pressure on Ukrainian forces. They suffer losses that the defending Ukrainian troops would not be able to bear.
Focus on quantity at the expense of quality allows the Russians to gain an advantage, in particular because the suspension of aid to Ukraine led to a reduction in the qualitative advantages of Ukrainians. However, the Russians will rely not only on their quantitative advantage, predicts ISW, noting that the aggressor's army is learning and becoming more innovative.
“The Russian command seems to have learned from previous mistakes in operational planning, and the summer offensive will probably aim to stretch the Ukrainian forces and overwhelm them on the longer front line in eastern Ukraine,” ISW estimates.
Analysts predict that the Ukrainians will most likely be able to stabilize the front line in the coming months and launch limited counter-offensive operations at the end of the year or at the beginning of 2025.
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